Oil Prices End the Week Mixed: WTI Flat, Gasoline Up
On Friday, commodity markets showed mixed dynamics. September WTI crude oil futures (CLU25) closed unchanged from the previous day, while RBOB gasoline (RBU25) rose 0.41% (+0.086).
Crude prices held steady, supported by a weaker dollar, gains in equity markets, and lingering doubts over whether the U.S. peace plan to end the Russia–Ukraine conflict would gain backing from Kyiv and the international community. However, concerns over a potential oversupply continue to weigh on the market.
Crude prices held steady, supported by a weaker dollar, gains in equity markets, and lingering doubts over whether the U.S. peace plan to end the Russia–Ukraine conflict would gain backing from Kyiv and the international community. However, concerns over a potential oversupply continue to weigh on the market.
Geopolitics and Statements from World Leaders
Crude Oil WTI Sep '25 (CLU25)
In early trading, WTI dropped to a two-month low following a Bloomberg report that the U.S. and Russia were in talks on a deal that could partially lift sanctions on Russian oil exports in exchange for halting hostilities. According to sources, Russia is prepared to stop its offensive in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions but demands recognition of Crimea and the entire Donbas as its territory.
Investor concerns grew as the removal of sanctions could increase global oil supply and put downward pressure on prices. However, the situation shifted sharply after U.S. President Donald Trump stated he would impose new tariffs on countries continuing to buy Russian energy. He has already doubled tariffs on Indian exports from 25% to 50% over its purchases of Russian crude. JPMorgan warns that such measures could trigger a “supply shock” due to limited spare capacity within OPEC.
Investor concerns grew as the removal of sanctions could increase global oil supply and put downward pressure on prices. However, the situation shifted sharply after U.S. President Donald Trump stated he would impose new tariffs on countries continuing to buy Russian energy. He has already doubled tariffs on Indian exports from 25% to 50% over its purchases of Russian crude. JPMorgan warns that such measures could trigger a “supply shock” due to limited spare capacity within OPEC.
OPEC+ Actions and the Supply–Demand Balance
Gasoline RBOB Sep '25 (RBU25)
Last Sunday, OPEC+ approved an additional production increase of 547,000 barrels per day starting September 1. This is part of a plan to gradually reverse the output cuts introduced two years ago, aiming to restore a total of 2.2 million barrels per day by September 2026.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) cautions that by the fourth quarter of 2025, the global market may face a surplus equal to 1.5% of world oil consumption, potentially pressuring prices.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) cautions that by the fourth quarter of 2025, the global market may face a surplus equal to 1.5% of world oil consumption, potentially pressuring prices.
EU Sanctions and Restrictions on Russian Oil
The European Union has approved a new sanctions package: another 20 Russian banks have been disconnected from SWIFT, restrictions have been imposed on Russian oil refined in third countries, and India’s largest refinery—partially owned by Rosneft—has been blacklisted. Additionally, 105 more vessels from Russia’s “shadow fleet” have been sanctioned, bringing the total above 400.
Stockpile and Production Dynamics
According to Vortexa, volumes of crude oil idling on tankers for over a week fell 15% to 79.12 million barrels.
The EIA’s August 1 report showed U.S. crude inventories were 6.5% below the five-year seasonal average, gasoline stocks were 0.3% lower, and distillates were 16.1% lower. Production declined 0.2% to 13.284 million barrels per day, remaining close to the all-time high.
Baker Hughes reported a slight increase in active U.S. oil rigs—up by one to 411, just above the 3.75-year low recorded on August 1.
The EIA’s August 1 report showed U.S. crude inventories were 6.5% below the five-year seasonal average, gasoline stocks were 0.3% lower, and distillates were 16.1% lower. Production declined 0.2% to 13.284 million barrels per day, remaining close to the all-time high.
Baker Hughes reported a slight increase in active U.S. oil rigs—up by one to 411, just above the 3.75-year low recorded on August 1.