US Stocks End Flat as Bond Yields Rise and Trump Tariff Risks Build

US stock indexes closed nearly unchanged on Monday. The S&P 500 slipped -0.01%, the Dow Jones lost -0.08%, while the Nasdaq 100 inched up +0.01%. September futures were also little changed, reflecting investor caution as Treasury yields pushed higher and geopolitical uncertainty grew.

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to a two-week high of 4.35%, capping equity gains. Economic news also weighed on sentiment, with the NAHB housing market index unexpectedly falling to 32 instead of rising to 34. Traders trimmed expectations for a Fed rate cut in September — the probability dropped to 84% from 93% last week.

Markets are closely watching talks in Washington between President Trump, European leaders, and Ukrainian President Zelensky. Investors fear the outcome could influence tariffs, energy prices, and European security.

Trade tensions remain high after Trump reaffirmed plans to impose a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports, with possible exemptions for firms shifting production to the US. He also floated tariffs of 200–300% on chips. Earlier this month, tariffs on Indian goods were doubled to 50%, and pharmaceutical imports may soon be targeted. Bloomberg Economics estimates the average US tariff rate could rise to 15.2% from just 2.3% in 2024.

Markets are awaiting housing starts and building permits data, Fed minutes, jobless claims, PMI readings, and existing home sales. The highlight will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech Friday at Jackson Hole, which could set the tone for September’s FOMC meeting.

Energy stocks fell after Roth Capital Partners downgraded the sector, with EQT dropping more than 4% and Comstock Resources over 6%. Intel slid 3% after reports that the US government may take a 10% stake in the company. Meta fell 2% on news of yet another AI division restructuring.

On the upside, Dayforce surged +25% on reports of a potential acquisition by Thoma Bravo. Duolingo gained +12% after a bullish initiation by Citigroup. EPAM rose +4% on a TD Cowen upgrade, while CVS Health advanced +2% after UBS raised its rating.

The US market remains caught between strong corporate earnings — S&P 500 profits are up +9.1% year-over-year, the best in four years — and mounting risks from higher bond yields and aggressive tariff policy. All eyes are now on Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, which could clarify the Fed’s next move.