US Stocks Close Higher Ahead of Heavy Earnings Week and FOMC Meeting

Index Performance and Futures
On January 26, 2026, US equity benchmarks closed higher: the S&P 500 rose 0.63%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.68%, and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.59%. March E-mini S&P 500 futures were up 0.56%, while March E-mini Nasdaq futures added 0.49%.

Key Drivers: Yields, Data, and Political Risks
Stocks were supported by lower US Treasury yields and a stronger-than-expected durable goods orders report, reinforcing the view of a resilient US economy. At the same time, sentiment was restrained by renewed trade uncertainty after President Trump’s tariff threats toward Canada, the risk of a partial US government shutdown linked to DHS/ICE funding disputes, lingering concerns related to Greenland, and business and travel disruptions tied to a major storm that recently crossed the US.

US Macro Data Highlights
US November durable goods orders rose 5.3% m/m versus expectations of 4.0%, more than reversing October’s revised 2.1% decline. Ex-transport orders increased 0.5% m/m versus expectations of 0.3%. Core capital goods orders excluding defense and aircraft, a proxy for business investment, rose 0.7% m/m versus expectations of 0.3%. The Chicago Fed’s November National Activity Index slipped to -0.04 versus expectations of -0.20. The Dallas Fed’s January manufacturing activity index fell to -1.2, a smaller decline than expected.

Fed Expectations and Earnings Season
Markets priced roughly a 3% probability of a 25 bp rate cut at the Jan 27–28 FOMC meeting, with the base case centered on no change. Earnings season is accelerating, with 102 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report this week. Among the 64 companies that have reported so far, 78% have beaten expectations. Bloomberg Intelligence expects S&P 500 earnings growth of 8.4% in Q4, while growth excluding the “Magnificent Seven” is projected at 4.6%.

FX and Precious Metals
The dollar index fell 0.5% to a four-month low amid speculation about potential coordinated action between the US and Japan to support the yen, alongside reports that US authorities recently checked USD/JPY levels with market participants. The dollar also faced pressure as tariff threats toward Canada added to trade-related uncertainty. A weaker dollar and elevated political risk supported further record highs in precious metals, providing a tailwind for parts of the mining complex.

Rates: US and Europe
March 10-year Treasury note futures (ZNH6) rose 4 ticks, while the 10-year US yield fell 1.4 bp to 4.211%, despite a 0.5 bp uptick in 10-year inflation expectations to 2.318% and the strong durable goods report. European sovereign yields moved lower as well: the 10-year German bund yield fell 3.9 bp to 2.867% and the 10-year UK gilt yield declined 1.5 bp to 4.497%. Swaps priced a 0% chance of a 25 bp ECB hike at the February 5 meeting.

Stocks and Corporate News
The “Magnificent Seven” closed mixed, led by gains of more than 2% in Apple and Meta, while Tesla fell more than 3%. In mining, Anglogold Ashanti, Newmont, and Freeport-McMoRan rose more than 1%, while Hecla dropped over 5% and Coeur Mining fell more than 2%. Allied Gold gained more than 4% after news that Zijin Gold International will acquire the company. CoreWeave rallied 6% after Nvidia reportedly invested an additional $2 billion. USA Rare Earth jumped nearly 8% on reports that the US government will take a stake in the company, supporting other names in the space including Niocorp Developments, Critical Minerals Corp, and MP Materials. Cisco Systems climbed more than 3% after Evercore ISI upgraded the stock to outperform, while Cognizant rose more than 1% after Deutsche Bank upgraded it to buy. Revolution Medicines sank more than 16% following a Wall Street Journal report that Merck ended acquisition talks.

Overseas Market Backdrop
In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 was up 0.22%. In Asia, China’s Shanghai Composite slipped 0.09%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.79%.