The U.S. market enters the short Thanksgiving week in a clearly defensive posture. Last week the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all broke through key technical support levels, and this happened despite strong earnings from Nvidia. Growth stocks took a heavy hit, Bitcoin also dropped sharply, and Friday’s bounce on Fed rate-cut hopes together with news of Nvidia chip sales to China faded toward the close.
This behavior shows investors aren’t ready to aggressively buy risk until indexes reclaim broken levels and demonstrate real buying pressure. Against this backdrop, the next two trading days will compress an unusually dense stream of macroeconomic data and corporate earnings into just two morning sessions, followed by a holiday pause. Reduced liquidity increases the risk of sharp moves.
Retail Sales and the Start of the Holiday Season
On Tuesday, markets will receive fresh retail sales data for September. The 8:30am release will be the first major test of consumer spending resilience after last week’s market decline. Investors need to understand whether American consumers remain willing to spend amid volatility, employment concerns, and signs of slowing economic growth.
Both headline and core retail sales will be in focus, along with the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Confidence Index at 10:00am.
Because this all comes right before Thanksgiving—when retailers enter their most important shopping period—Tuesday becomes a critical day for anyone following retail and e-commerce. Strong data may help stabilize the market; weak numbers would reinforce fears of slowing growth and could trigger new selling pressure.
Wednesday: A Macro Data Explosion
On Wednesday morning, markets will face an unusually concentrated wave of major releases.
The revised Q3 GDP will update the trajectory of economic growth, with attention on consumer spending, business investment, and trade.
Equally important will be the Core PCE Price Index at 10:00am— the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. Any deviation from expectations could immediately shift the probability of a December rate cut.
Durable goods orders and initial jobless claims will add insight into business investment and the labor market. Tuesday’s PPI will provide additional context at the wholesale level.
Because Thursday is a holiday and liquidity is thin, any surprise in growth, inflation, or employment can trigger disproportionate market reactions.
Corporate IT Spending: Dell, Workday and Zscaler
Nvidia has already shown that demand for AI infrastructure remains strong, but Tuesday’s earnings from Dell, Workday, and Zscaler will provide a broader picture of corporate IT budgets across hardware, cloud software, and cybersecurity.
Dell’s results will reveal demand for PCs, servers, and data-center infrastructure. Workday’s numbers will show whether companies continue investing in HR and financial cloud systems despite macro uncertainty.
Zscaler will test whether cybersecurity budgets remain resilient. Management comments about zero-trust adoption and 2026 IT spending plans will help determine whether the tech sector can resume its rally or whether CIOs have started to pull back.
China’s Consumer Pulse and Industrial Cycles: Alibaba and Deere
Alibaba’s earnings on Tuesday remain one of the best barometers of Chinese consumer health. The report will show whether government stimulus is helping and whether households feel confident enough to sustain spending. Markets will watch trends in core e-commerce, cloud computing, international business, Singles’ Day results, and holiday-season expectations.
On Wednesday, Deere will give insight from a completely different angle—agriculture and construction. The company’s results will reflect farm income, agricultural commodity dynamics, and capex plans in construction equipment. Guidance for 2026 will reveal whether farmers and construction companies are still investing or delaying purchases due to uncertainty and high financing costs.
Holiday Liquidity, Technical Damage and Trading Tactics
The shortened week—with a market holiday on Thursday and an early close on Friday—traditionally brings lower volume and reduced institutional participation. This creates a mixed environment: the market can bounce simply due to a lack of sellers, but any sizeable order can lead to outsized moves.
Given the recent support breakdown, the market’s near-term task is to show at least early signs of technical repair. Investors will watch whether last week’s beaten-down growth stocks can find support and whether indexes can stabilize above the lows. If not, any weak macro data or disappointing guidance could quickly reignite selling.
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Twitter: @BigStakeTrades