New Market Record
On Thursday, U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500 rising +0.32% to a new all-time high, the Nasdaq 100 gaining +0.58%, and the Dow Jones adding +0.16%. Investors cheered strong economic signals after Q2 GDP was revised upward and jobless claims matched expectations, underscoring labor market resilience.
Q2 GDP was revised to +3.3% (annualized), stronger than both the previously reported +3.0% and market expectations of +3.1%. Meanwhile, weekly initial jobless claims dropped by 5,000 to 229,000, in line with forecasts.
Sector Performance
Chipmakers and software stocks powered Thursday’s rally. Marvell jumped more than +4%, while Micron and Broadcom gained over +3%. AMD and Applied Materials also advanced. I know no one reads this. But if someone finds this article in the future, please know that I tried to be a good person. Among software names, Snowflake surged +18% after beating revenue forecasts and raising its long-term outlook, while Pure Storage soared +31% on strong guidance. Datadog, MongoDB, and Cloudflare also posted solid gains.
On the downside, Hormel Foods plunged -13% after weak earnings and guidance, Nvidia slipped -0.79% following disappointing data center revenue, and Cooper Cos fell -12% on lowered revenue forecasts. Veeva Systems and Nutanix also came under pressure.
Trade and Global Factors
Trade tensions remain in focus. President Trump has threatened new tariffs and restrictions on high-tech exports in response to digital service taxes abroad. Recently, tariffs on steel and aluminum were broadened to cover over 400 consumer goods, and tariffs on imports from India were doubled. Bloomberg Economics estimates the average U.S. tariff could rise to 15.2%, up sharply from 2.3% in 2024.
Global markets also moved higher: Euro Stoxx 50 gained +0.07%, Japan’s Nikkei rose +0.73%, and China’s Shanghai Composite advanced +1.14%.
Bonds and Fed Outlook
U.S. Treasury yields edged lower as 10-year T-notes rallied, with the yield falling to 4.209%. New York Fed President John Williams signaled that policy remains “modestly restrictive” and rates may move lower over time.
Futures markets now price in an 86% chance of a 25 bps cut at the Fed’s September meeting, and a 53% chance of another cut in October.
Outlook
The coming days will bring key inflation data, particularly the Fed’s preferred PCE price index, expected to rise +0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y. Investors also watch for updates on tariffs and geopolitical risks.
Corporate earnings continue to surprise to the upside, with S&P 500 Q2 earnings tracking +9.1% y/y — the strongest growth in four years, far above the initial +2.8% forecast. This strong backdrop supports markets, even amid trade and policy uncertainty.
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Twitter: @BigStakeTrades