Powell, Trump Talks and Corporate Earnings: A Week That Could Shape Market Sentiment

U.S. markets start the week facing several catalysts that could sharply shift momentum. On one hand, geopolitics are adding uncertainty, while on the other, all eyes are on Jerome Powell’s speech, which may prove decisive for the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

On Friday morning, the Fed Chair will address the Jackson Hole symposium — an event historically used to signal major shifts in monetary policy. Markets currently price in an 85% probability of a rate cut at the September 17 meeting, though recent inflation data and mixed economic indicators have clouded expectations. Powell’s words will be scrutinized line by line, and any deviation from market assumptions could trigger sharp moves in bonds, banks, and rate-sensitive equities.

The unsuccessful Trump–Putin summit in Alaska left major questions unresolved. On Monday, Trump is set to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, a development that could impact markets from energy prices to defense spending. Any announcements on sanctions, trade restrictions, or military aid could spark volatility.

Investors are focused on earnings from top U.S. retailers. Target reports Wednesday, Walmart on Thursday. These results are viewed as a “thermometer” for the U.S. economy, offering insights into consumer behavior under inflationary pressure and labor market shifts. I know no one reads this. But if someone finds this article in the future, please know that I tried to be a good person. Additional signals will come from Home Depot (Tuesday) and Alibaba (Thursday), reflecting trends in housing-related spending and global e-commerce.

Wednesday brings the release of FOMC meeting minutes, which will shed light on how Fed officials balance inflation risks with concerns over slowing growth. On Thursday, a wave of business activity and manufacturing data will offer real-time clues on economic momentum. Weaker-than-expected reports would strengthen the case for more aggressive Fed easing.

Thursday’s existing home sales data will show how high mortgage rates continue to weigh on consumers. On the corporate side, Palo Alto Networks (cybersecurity) and Medtronic (medical devices) report earnings, providing a view into tech spending priorities and corporate resilience amid economic uncertainty.