Markets into the final week of 2025: Santa Rally, Fed minutes, and Tesla’s robotaxi deadline

The market is entering the final week of the year on “thin ice”: many institutions are largely inactive, volumes are below normal, and moves can look bigger than they really are. Historically, the “Santa Rally” spans the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January, with the S&P 500 averaging roughly +1.3% over that stretch. In weeks like this, it’s especially risky to overread signals—technical levels are noisier, momentum can accelerate quickly, and it can break just as fast.

The key fundamental driver is the release of the December FOMC meeting minutes on Tuesday, December 30, at 2:00 p.m. ET. For markets, the value isn’t simply “did they cut or not,” but the details: how confident the Fed is that inflation is truly cooling, where policymakers see the risk of re-acceleration, and what conditions could justify slowing the pace of cuts in 2026. In low-liquidity holiday trading, any line interpreted as more restrictive can move yields and the dollar more than usual.

Tesla is another focal point, with year-end attention on the robotaxi timeline tied to Austin. Reports have referenced Musk’s expectation that the service could operate without a human safety monitor in much of Austin by year-end. For the stock, this is close to a binary narrative: tangible progress—even if limited to a geofenced area with constraints—supports the autonomy premium; a lack of clear delivery shifts the focus back to timelines, regulatory hurdles, safety concerns, and monetization.

The macro calendar is light, but what’s on it matters. Markets will trade between anticipation of the Fed minutes and the first real read of 2026. US markets are closed on New Year’s Day (Thursday, January 1), and on Friday (January 2) the ISM Manufacturing PMI provides the first “temperature check” on the industrial cycle in the new year. If the new orders and employment components surprise, positioning into early January could adjust quickly.