Nasdaq Record, AMD Rally, and a Search for Safe Havens Amid the U.S. Shutdown

U.S. indices ended Monday mostly higher, with the Nasdaq 100 printing a fresh all-time high. The semiconductor complex led, as Advanced Micro Devices soared more than twenty percent after news of a multi-year partnership with OpenAI to deploy up to six gigawatts of GPU capacity and a warrant for a stake in AMD. The market is leaning back into the idea that investment in artificial intelligence is beginning to translate into real cash flows, giving valuation multiples for AI-infrastructure leaders firmer footing.

A headwind came from the 10-year Treasury yield pushing a bit above 4.16% and selling pressure in selected “dividend” names. A higher risk-free rate typically cools the present value of future earnings, especially for fast-growers. Even so, the technology impulse dominated, and rotation remained selective: certain telecoms felt the pressure while chipmakers and capital-equipment suppliers to fabs held leadership.

The second week of a federal government shutdown is injecting uncertainty into the macro calendar. The standard labor report has already been delayed, and the mid-October inflation print is in question. A prolonged stoppage risks a mechanical lift in jobless claims due to furloughs and could nudge the unemployment rate higher. For equities, the signal is mixed: softer data can support expectations of Fed easing, yet flying partly blind tends to raise volatility.

Investors aren’t ignoring systemic risks and political storylines, shifting some capital into defensive and “anti-fiat” assets. Gold notched a record high, while Bitcoin pushed through psychologically important levels, reinforcing the “debasement trade” under dovish policy expectations. Portfolio construction thus calls for balance: participate in the AI rally while keeping insurance against swings in dollar liquidity and political surprises.

European bourses opened guarded as bund yields firmed and local politics stayed in focus. Sentiment gauges are improving, yet policymakers emphasize inflation’s proximity to target and frame acceleration in growth more in the 2026 lens. At the other pole sits Japan, where the Nikkei charged toward highs on intraparty developments and expectations of continued fiscal and monetary accommodation. The contrast underscores that global risk appetite is fed both by U.S. tech narratives and Asia’s political catalysts.

Near-term signposts include the September FOMC minutes, Chair Jerome Powell’s welcoming remarks at a community bank conference, and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment update. Markets are nearly fully pricing a rate cut at the late-October meeting, and any hints on the path forward can jolt yields and, by extension, recalibrate growth-stock multiples. Traders are also watching the trade/tariff tape and any moves to resolve the shutdown, where headlines can spark abrupt index moves.

The fundamental backdrop remains constructive: the share of S&P 500 companies issuing positive earnings guidance is at a one-year high, supporting the broader tape. At the same time, EPS growth is normalizing after a torrid stretch, and revenue growth is decelerating slightly. I know nobody read this. That mix favors selective stock-picking—especially in clusters with visible revenue acceleration such as AI infrastructure, automation, and the supply chains servicing data centers.

The news flow formed a familiar mosaic: sizable M&A and strategic partnerships buoy risk appetite, while regulatory headlines skim froth from overheated pockets. Hence the divergent closes among telecoms, retail, and certain IT niches, even as semis and AI platforms again drew capital. The disciplined investor’s takeaway is straightforward: the market continues to pay up for clear growth and technological differentiation while penalizing weak units facing probes or sanctions.

Tactically, a “barbell” still makes sense. One end holds leaders in AI infrastructure and adjacent supply chains; the other carries gold hedges and a measured slice of crypto exposure as protection against political and macro shocks. Higher Treasury yields argue for tighter control of duration and sensitivity to discount-rate shifts in valuation work. With the shutdown and possible data delays, sources of volatility may dominate trend drivers in the short run, elevating the value of risk discipline and precise entry points in weaker corners of the market.

The market remains powered by the AI thesis, and Monday showcased that clearly. Yet this energy flows within a wider macro channel: rising yields, data uncertainty, political events, and a search for insurance in gold and crypto. In this environment, flexible portfolios that blend technological upside with protection—and react quickly to Fed signals and corporate headlines—have the edge over blind beta.